The Electric Commentary

Monday, November 01, 2004


This prediction is based on speculation, hearsay, conjecture, and poor use of statistics. I figure that this makes my prediction at least as credible as Zogby's prediction. As Dan Drezner has stated, anyone who claims to know who will win is full of it. That being said, I predict the following:

1. John Kerry will win.
2. He will win by at least 25 electoral votes.
3. He will win Wisconsin and Ohio.
4. George Bush will win the popular vote.

I will probably be very wrong on this, but it's the best I can do with really, really, really imperfect information. I believe that polls showing a close race in WI and OH are undercounting young voters and minorities. I also believe that Kerry will win Minnesota, but I'm less willing to make that part of the prediction.

So there you go. And if you think you might be disappointed come Tuesday night, why not take Megan McArdle's advice:

Readers who are anxious about the outcome of the election should take this opportunity to hedge their net psychic wealth by betting against their candidate. That's right, I said against. That way, if you're a rabid Kerry partisan, and he loses, you'll at least have the consolation of a couple hundred dollars to blow on drinking or a one-way ticket to France. Similarly, I'm sure Bush supporters would find their anguish eased by a little walking-around money before the taxman comes and takes everything they have. Of course, if your candidate wins you're out the money you bet, but in your joy at having Saved the World From HIM, you probably won't even notice.

Of course if you bet based on my prediction, you deserve whatever you get. After all, your guess is as good as mine (Note: This means you will be wrong).


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