The Electric Commentary

Tuesday, September 26, 2006

The "370 Rule" Strikes Again!

The Football Outsiders have this rule that if a RB gets over 370 carries in a season, then in the next season he will either decline significantly or get hurt. Last year Shaun Alexander had 430 carries counting playoffs, and:

League MVP Shaun Alexander cracked a bone in his sore left foot and will be lost to the Seattle Seahawks for at least a couple of weeks.

Alexander has had soreness and a bone bruise in his left foot since the season opener at Detroit. Coach Mike Holmgren said that Alexander cracked a bone sometime during the team's 42-30 win over the New York Giants. Holmgren said the bruise in Alexander's foot led to the crack and Alexander was walking around team headquarters Sept. 25 on crutches.

I would also like to note that because of the "370 Rule" I drafted Maurice Morris on my fantasy team.


  • LT had over 370 in 2002. Next year he gained 0.8 yards more per carry and had 21 more receptions.

    A quick check of NFL rushing attempts leaders shows that Emmitt Smith only slightly declined after carrying well over 370, Walter Payton stayed the same, and Eric Dickerson twice improved and twice did worse. I didn't find anyone else besides Alexander who carried over 370 times (regular season at least). Curtis Martin was right about that # four times in regular season (2x over if include playoffs) and it only caused a real drop off once - when he was 31 years old.

    Please link to the original article as I would suspect they did a more through search.

    By Blogger Scott H, at 6:10 PM  

  • It's only in the book version. When I head home I'll put up a quick summary, but off the top of my head, Jamal Anderson and Terrell DAvis come to mind.

    By Blogger PaulNoonan, at 9:00 AM  

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