The Electric Commentary

Wednesday, February 28, 2007

The Brewers Will Be Good

Ahren's analysis should make you very optimistic:

according to BP, an extraordinarily bad team with 0.0 WARP would win 20-25 games. given the above projection, the brewers should be in the 91-96 win range. that's pretty sweet. of course, there are problems with the way i aggregated everything, but i tried to err conservatively and assume the likely moves, not the optimistic ones. for instance, yovani gallardo isn't included in this at all, and braun is just used to fill out pa's on the infield, not to actually win the job at 3b at some point.

the overall story of the 2007 brewers is that they are very deep and very balanced. in both the rotation and the lineup, they have a distinct absence of weak spots, and several players that are above-average for replacements (graff, counsell, clark, gross, villaneuva, miller, gallardo, etc.) even if their luck is just average, they should contend for the NL central crown and a wildcard spot.

any cubs fans out there looking to place bets on total wins?

Think he's overly optimistic? Check out his analysis. If he errs, he errs on the conservative side. I can't remember having this much optimism about a baseball season, well...ever.


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